Condo Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 123%

Picture an open house where the sellers bring more chairs than the buyers can fill. That is roughly the U.S. condo market today. In September, Redfin estimates, the country had 123% more condo sellers than buyers, the widest spread in data going back to 2013 ^[1].

The gap was 95.5% a year earlier, so the imbalance grew sharply in 12 months, according to Redfin ^[1]. Yahoo Finance reported the same figures and noted buyers now hold their strongest bargaining position in over a decade ^[3].

How we got here

• Redfin estimates the pool of condo buyers shrank 2.5% from August to 88,460, the fewest in at least 13 years ^[1].
• Sellers rose 0.9% over the month to 197,248, so there are about two listings chasing each buyer ^[1].
• In September 2021, condo sellers were 25.1% fewer than buyers, a complete reversal from today ^[2].
• About 37% of condos sold in September had a price cut, versus 16% five years earlier, and the typical one sat 63 days before going under contract ^[2].

The pain is concentrated in the Sun Belt. Redfin says nine of the 10 metros with the biggest seller surplus sit in that region, led by three Texas markets and Miami ^[1].

But a cheap sticker does not mean a cheap condo. Redfin points to rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments, especially in Florida and Texas, as costs that can swamp a lower price ^[2]. Prices have barely moved: the median fell only 0.8%, to about $339,000 ^[3].

What it means for you

Buyers have room to bargain. By our math, a 5% discount on a $339,000 condo saves $16,950, and with 20% down at the 7.18% average 30-year rate ^[4], principal and interest drops from about $1,837 to about $1,745 a month. Add HOA and insurance before you call it a deal. Redfin economist Asad Khan said buyers "have more room to negotiate price cuts" ^[1].

Zoom out

Single-family homes are also a buyer's market, with sellers ahead by 53.7%, but that gap is less than half the condo spread ^[1]. Condos, long the starter rung for first-time buyers, are feeling high rates and rising carrying costs first ^[2].