Camden Trims Rent Outlook as New Leases Fall 2%

In the Sun Belt, the newest tenant often pays less than the last one. Houston-based Camden Property Trust said on November 5 that new leases in the third quarter priced 2.0% below the rents they replaced ^[1].

The apartment REIT lowered its 2026 same-property revenue midpoint to 0.00% from 0.50%, and now expects net operating income to fall 1.00% ^[1].

The quarter in numbers

• Renewals rose 3.6%, so blended lease rates gained 1.0% ^[1].
• Occupancy held at 95.6% versus 95.5% a year earlier ^[1].
• Across 51,087 same-property homes, average monthly rent was $1,951, down 0.5% from $1,961 ^[2].
• Core FFO was $1.71 a share, up from $1.70, with full-year guidance held at a $6.75 midpoint ^[1].

But the headline earnings figure is misleading. EPS of $8.71 included about $9.37 a share of gain from selling its California portfolio, 11 communities with 3,620 homes, for about $1.6 billion ^[1]. Camden used roughly $0.9 billion of that to pay down its credit line and commercial paper ^[1].

What it means for you

Camden's $1,951 average rent sits close to Zillow's typical U.S. rent of $1,932 ^[2][3]. A 2.0% cut on a new lease at $1,951 is about $39 a month, or $468 a year, by our math. Renters in these markets may have room to negotiate. Small landlords should budget for flat rents and keep turnover low, since renewals are the only leases still rising.

Zoom out

Camden is still building, with 1,560 homes under construction in Charlotte, Nashville and Raleigh area projects ^[1]. Owners are betting today's oversupply clears before those units open.