AMH Raises 2026 Outlook as New-Lease Rents Flatten

AMH's tenants are staying put. The next tenant through the door, though, is paying almost exactly what the last one did.

The Las Vegas landlord owns 60,626 rental houses. It raised the midpoint of its 2026 Core FFO guidance by $0.02 to $1.97 per share, or 5.3% growth, according to its Nov. 4 SEC filing ^[1]. Core FFO is the cash earnings measure that real estate investment trusts (REITs) use to report profit.

How the quarter looked

• Rent and other property revenue rose 4.1% to $498.1 million in the third quarter, up from $478.5 million a year earlier ^[1].
• Same-Home occupancy averaged 96.0%, so about 24 of every 25 homes had a tenant, though that was 30 basis points lower than in 2025 ^[1].
• Renewing tenants paid 3.3% more and new tenants paid 1.0% more, for a blended increase of 2.6% ^[1].
• AMH spent $75.0 million to buy back 2.4 million shares at an average of $31.39, and $463 million over the past 12 months, per the earnings call ^[2].

But October's new-lease growth slid to 0.1% ^[1]. On the Nov. 5 call, CFO Christopher Lau said today's leasing pace leaves only about 1% of revenue growth already locked in for 2027 ^[2]. COO Lincoln Palmer said heavy supply in markets like San Antonio is limiting how far rents can rise ^[2].

What it means for you

CEO Bryan Smith tied rental demand to mortgage rates near multi-decade highs ^[2]. Freddie Mac puts the 30-year fixed at 7.18% ^[3]. By our math, buying Zillow's typical $366,157 home with 20% down costs about $1,984 a month in principal and interest, above the $1,932 typical rent, before taxes and insurance ^[4]. That gap keeps renters renting. Palmer warned that high rates also freeze moves, saying "mobility is the tide that floats all boats" ^[2]. AMH's own pricing signal: it sells older homes at about a 4% yield and builds where land deals pencil above 6% ^[2]. By our math, that is $40,000 versus $60,000 of yearly income on $1 million, against debt that costs AMH 4.5% on average ^[1].

Zoom out

Single-family landlords are still getting raises from existing tenants, but AMH's 3.3% renewal bump trails 3.7% consumer inflation ^{[1] [5]}. Growth is now coming from new construction and buybacks more than from rent hikes.