29% of contractors report immigration enforcement effects as residential trade jobs fall

The Associated General Contractors released its 2026 workforce survey on Sept. 3, and 29% of respondents reported at least one direct or indirect effect of immigration enforcement in the prior six months ^[1]. The survey drew 1,830 respondents ^[1].

AGC’s stated asks are more federal money for construction training, including high school career and technical education, and “a new construction-specific temporary work visa program” ^[1]. Shortages also reach the office: 82% of respondents had openings for salaried positions, and 74% reported at least one significant project delay in the past year ^[1].

Residential trade jobs fell while heavy construction added workers

Construction added 11,000 jobs in September, after 16,000 in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national unemployment rate rose to 4.2% ^[2]. Seasonally adjusted construction employment reached 8.364 million, up 1.3% from a year earlier by our math ^[4].

We calculate that residential specialty trade jobs fell 1.2% in a year and residential building jobs fell by 4,000, while heavy and civil engineering rose 2.2% ^[4]. The survey’s title points to data center construction as one source of competition for workers ^[1].

Openings rose while hiring slowed

The construction job openings rate was 2.9% in August, against 2.5% a year earlier, and the hires rate fell to 3.7% ^[5]. In the household survey, the foreign-born unemployment rate was 3.2% in September, down from 4.1%, and their labor force participation rate eased to 66.0% from 66.3% ^[3]. Over the same year, the native-born labor force shrank by about 1.1 million people and the foreign-born labor force grew by about 206,000, we calculate ^[3].

How to use this

For builders and developers

1. Ask each subcontractor to commit in writing to crew size and start dates, since 16% of AGC respondents said their subs lost workers ^[1].
2. Add schedule float to 2027 starts. Forty-two percent of contractors said shortages delayed projects ^[1], and each extra month adds carrying costs on land and construction debt.
3. Bid trades early for residential work, where specialty trade employment is down about 28,800 jobs from a year ago ^[4].

For lenders and investors in construction deals

1. Stress-test draw schedules for a slower build. With openings at 251,000 and the hires rate down to 3.7% ^[5], a timeline from 2025 could run short.
2. Ask sponsors how much of their labor comes through subcontractors and which backup crews they have named, since subcontractor losses were the most common enforcement effect in AGC’s survey, at 16% ^[1].

For landlords planning renovations

1. Book contractors for turns and capital projects before spring, and get a firm start date in the contract, because residential specialty trades employ about 28,800 fewer people than a year ago ^[4]. Ask for a written price that holds for 60 days so a delayed start does not reopen the bid.