Small business owners naming inflation as their top problem rose to 20% from 14%
NFIB’s optimism index slipped to 97.9 in September, a net 31% of owners raised prices, and only 7% said it was a good time to expand, which matters to anyone who leases space to them.
By Katia Clara · · 3 min read
Small business optimism dipped to 97.9 in September from 98.7 in August, according to the National Federation of Independent Business [1]. The index has stayed between 95.3 and 99.8 for the past year [1].
NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose a point to 90, against a historical average of 68 [1].
Inflation moved up the list of owners’ problems as taxes fell
One year ago, 18% of owners named taxes as their biggest problem and 14% named inflation. In September those shares were 11% and 20% [1]. The Consumer Price Index was up 3.7% over the year to September, 0.7 points faster than a year earlier [2].
Owners are raising prices and pay but holding back on expansion
A net 31% raised selling prices and another net 31% plan to, against historical averages of 14% and 22% [1]. A net 28% raised compensation, and 32% had openings they could not fill [1]. The net share expecting a better economy fell 4 points to 6%, and the net earnings trend stood at −20% [1].
| NFIB measure, September 2026 | Reading | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| Net share raising selling prices | 31% | 0 |
| Net share planning price increases | 31% | +3 |
| Good time to expand | 7% | −5 |
| Plan capital outlays | 22% | −2 |
| Unfilled job openings | 32% | −3 |
| Average short-term loan rate | 8.2% | +0.7 |
| Borrow regularly | 22% | −3 |
How to use this
For landlords who lease to small businesses
- Review fixed rent bumps against current inflation before renewals. A 3% annual step trails the 3.7% CPI increase [2], and owners are passing costs through at a net 31% rate [1], so ask for a CPI-linked bump with a floor and a cap in the renewal draft.
- Expect requests for tenant improvement help. Of owners who spent capital in the last six months, 16% improved buildings or land, up 4 points [1]. Put any allowance in writing as a reimbursement against paid invoices.
- Budget for slower absorption of new small-shop space. Only 7% of owners call this a good time to expand [1], so the data suggests leaving more months of downtime in the underwriting for small-shop vacancies than you used a year ago.
For small business owners
- Get a written quote on any short-term credit line now and compare it with the 8.2% average NFIB owners reported [1]. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 [3], a spread of about 4.2 points over the top of the range, we calculate.
- Test a price increase on one product line before a broad one. The net share raising prices has held at 31% [1], and 11% of owners name poor sales as their top problem [1].
For investors and lenders
- Stress-test retail tenant rosters for labor costs. Labor quality is the top problem for 26% of owners [1], and in metro Atlanta, unemployment was 3.5% in September, below the 4.0% national rate [4], which suggests employers there compete harder for workers.
- Watch borrowing demand. Only 22% of owners borrow regularly, against a historical average of 34% [1], so small-business loan growth could stay soft even if rates ease.
This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Sources
- [1]National Federation of Independent Business, Small Business Economic Trends, September 2026, Oct 13, 2026.
- [2]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, all urban consumers, U.S. city average, September 2026 (12-month change, not seasonally adjusted), Oct 2026.
- [3]Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026.
- [4]U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, metropolitan areas and nation, September 2026 (not seasonally adjusted), Oct 2026.
