Chicago home prices rose 6.7% in a year while Seattle’s fell 2%
Case-Shiller and FHFA both put national price growth near 2% a year, below 3.4% inflation, with gains concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest and declines in much of the Sun Belt and West.
By Raymond de Clairmont · · 3 min read
U.S. home prices rose 2.1% in the 12 months through August, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index, and fell 0.2% from July before seasonal adjustment [1]. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only index rose 2.4% over the same period [2].
S&P said prices have now “declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month” [1], with inflation 1.3 points above the nominal gain.
The Midwest and Northeast are rising while the Sun Belt and West are flat or falling
Five of the 19 cities with August data showed annual declines, led by Seattle at 2.0%, and Detroit had no August figure because of transaction delays in Wayne County [1]. Zillow’s home value index for September shows the same split in most of these metros [4].
Miami is where the two measures disagree most. Case-Shiller shows a 4.24% gain, while Zillow’s index puts the typical Miami home value up just 0.26% [1][4].
FHFA prices rose 4.4% in the East North Central states and 0.5% in the Mountain states
East South Central prices jumped 2.1% in August alone, the largest monthly move of any division, while New England fell 0.8% [3].
| Census division | Change, July to August | Change, 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| East North Central | 0.5% | 4.4% |
| Middle Atlantic | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| East South Central | 2.1% | 3.9% |
| West North Central | 0.7% | 3.7% |
| New England | −0.8% | 2.4% |
| West South Central | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| South Atlantic | −0.1% | 1.3% |
| Pacific | −0.1% | 1.2% |
| Mountain | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| United States | 0.3% | 2.4% |
Nationally, Zillow’s typical home value was $366,157 in September, which we calculate is $429 above its March level [4].
How to use this
For buyers
- Check whether both indexes are falling in your metro before you offer the asking price. In Dallas, Case-Shiller shows a 0.79% annual decline and Zillow a 2.05% decline [1][4], so ask the seller’s agent for the last three closed sales on the street and offer against those.
- Ask for a price reduction in metros where prices fell in August alone. Seattle fell 1.10% from July before seasonal adjustment and Los Angeles 0.80% [1], and you can compare your metro on The Portal’s Seattle page and the other metro pages.
For sellers
- Price from recent comparable sales even in a rising metro. Chicago prices rose 6.70% over the year but just 0.14% in August [1], so a list price built on last spring’s pace of gains could sit.
- Expect appraisals to track the slower FHFA numbers in the West. The Mountain division rose 0.5% in a year and the Pacific 1.2% [3], so ask your agent for comparable sales from the past 90 days before you set the price.
For investors and lenders
- Use an appreciation assumption at or below the national rate unless the metro data supports more. Case-Shiller rose 2.1% nationally and FHFA 2.4% [1][2], and on a $400,000 purchase each point of annual appreciation you assume is worth $4,000 a year by our math.
- Treat Miami valuations with care until the indexes agree. Case-Shiller’s 4.24% gain and Zillow’s 0.26% gain [1][4] imply very different exit prices, so ask for a broker opinion of value as well as an appraisal before you lend against a Miami property.
This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Sources
- [1]S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in August 2026, Oct 27, 2026.
- [2]Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in August; Up 2.4 Percent from Last Year, Oct 27, 2026.
- [3]Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA House Price Index monthly report, data through August 2026, Oct 27, 2026.
- [4]Zillow Group, Zillow Home Value Index, United States and metros, through September 2026, Oct 2026.
