Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September, but signed contracts fell 7.3%
Closings ticked up to a 3.99 million annual pace while new contracts dropped in every region, which points to a slow fall and more room for buyers to negotiate.
By Raymond de Clairmont · · 3 min read
Closings on existing homes rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, the National Association of Realtors reported [1]. Contracts signed during the month fell 7.3% [2], and NAR treats those pending sales as a leading indicator of closings [1].
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said “market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates” [2]. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average stood at 7.24% in the week of Oct. 29, against 6.17% a year earlier [3].
Signed contracts fell in all four regions, and the West fell furthest
The West’s pending index came in 15.0% below a year earlier and the South’s 12.0% below [2]. Closed sales were also lower than a year ago in every region [1].
Prices rose 4.7% in the Northeast and dipped in the West
The national median has now risen on a year-over-year basis for 39 straight months [1]. The West is the exception among the regions, with its median down 0.3% to $613,600 [1].
| Region | Annual sales pace | Sales vs a year ago | Median price | Price vs a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 470,000 | −4.1% | $523,600 | +4.7% |
| Midwest | 930,000 | −2.1% | $329,600 | +3.1% |
| South | 1.86 million | −0.5% | $361,000 | +0.2% |
| West | 730,000 | −5.2% | $613,600 | −0.3% |
| U.S. | 3.99 million | −2.2% | $417,500 | +1.3% |
Homes are taking longer to sell, and investors bought a larger share
Inventory rose 4.6% from a year earlier to 1.60 million homes, and median time on the market reached 33 days [1]. Condo and co-op sales fell 5.4% from a year earlier, more than single-family sales, which were down 1.9% [1].
| Measure | Sept 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-time buyers | 31% | 30% | 30% |
| Individual investors and second-home buyers | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| All-cash sales | 27% | 27% | 30% |
| Distressed sales | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Median days on market | 33 | 31 | 33 |
| Months of supply | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
How to use this
For buyers
- Ask the listing agent for the home’s days on market and its price history before you write an offer. Median time on market rose to 33 days in September from 31 in August [1], and a listing past that mark gives you a reason to ask for a lower price or a credit.
- Compare offers by monthly payment as well as price. On the $417,500 national median with 10% down [1], we calculate principal and interest at about $2,561 a month at the 7.24% average rate [3], and about $2,311 at 6.24%, so ask the seller to price a rate buydown credit in writing next to an equal price cut.
- Ask your lender to quote a rate lock long enough to cover a slow closing. Freddie Mac’s average is 1.07 points above a year ago by our math [3], and a lock that expires before closing exposes you to whatever the rate is that week.
For sellers
- Set your list price from sales that closed in the past 60 days rather than from spring listings. Supply reached 4.8 months nationally, up from 4.5 a year earlier, and pending sales in the South were 12.0% below last year [1][2].
- Offer a closing-cost or rate buydown credit up front if your home has sat longer than the local median. We calculate that the payment on the national median home is about $267 a month higher at 7.24% than at last year’s 6.17% [1][3], and a credit addresses that gap directly.
For investors and lenders
- Forecast October and November closings from the pending index rather than the September headline. Pending sales were 11.3% below a year earlier [2], so a purchase-loan pipeline sized on September’s 1.5% gain could run high.
- Underwrite resale exits in the West with flat prices. The West’s median fell 0.3% over the year and its pending sales fell 15.0% [1][2], while investors and second-home buyers made up 20% of all sales [1], so expect more competition from other investors on the buying side.
This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Sources
- [1]National Association of Realtors, Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, Oct 13, 2026.
- [2]National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales Decreased 7.3% in September, Oct 20, 2026.
- [3]Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 29, 2026, Oct 29, 2026.
