Apartment starts fell 26% in a year while single-family starts rose
September Census data show builders breaking ground on far fewer apartment buildings than a year ago, and new houses selling for less than they did last fall.
By Erick Tarray · · 3 min read
Builders started homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000 in September, 5.2% below August and 7.4% below a year earlier [1]. Census confidence intervals are wide enough that neither change is statistically significant [1].
Apartment starts fell by a quarter while single-family starts rose
The whole year-over-year decline came from buildings with five or more units, where starts fell 25.9% [1]. Single-family starts were up 2.6% over the same stretch [1].
Month to month, apartment starts move far more than single-family starts. Over the past 13 months they ranged from 282,000 in May to 519,000 in June [1].
Permits split by building type. Single-family permits fell 4.0% from August to 845,000, while permits for buildings of five or more units rose 5.9% to 503,000 [1].
New houses are selling for less than a year ago
The median new home sold for $400,400 in September, 3.9% below a year earlier [2]. August’s first estimates were 684,000 sales and a $393,700 median [3], both revised down a month later [2].
| Measure | Sept 2026 | Aug 2026 (revised) | Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales, annual rate | 676,000 | 680,000 | 714,000 |
| Median price | $400,400 | $385,400 | $416,800 |
| Average price | $472,800 | $470,800 | $506,800 |
| Homes for sale | 476,000 | 481,000 | 487,000 |
| Months’ supply | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Median months on market, finished homes | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
Of the 476,000 houses for sale, 111,000 were finished [2].
How to use this
For buyers of new homes
- Ask each builder for its list of finished homes that have not sold, and start your offer there. Nationally, 111,000 completed new homes were for sale in September, and the median one had sat for 3.0 months, up from 2.4 a year earlier [2].
- Anchor your price to the national median of $400,400, which is $16,400 below last September by our math [2]. With 10% down at the 7.24% average 30-year rate [4], we calculate principal and interest at about $2,456 a month, so ask the builder to price a rate buydown against an equal cut in price.
For land and lot sellers
- Ask a builder how many permitted lots it already holds in your submarket before you agree on a takedown schedule. Nationally, 151,000 single-family units had permits but had not started at the end of September, 6.3% more than a year earlier [1].
- Price lots against the region you sell in, since the South dominates both supply and demand. The South accounted for 413,000 of the 676,000 annualized new-home sales in September [2] and 505,000 of the 845,000 single-family permits [1], and we calculate those shares at 61% and 60%.
For multifamily developers and investors
- Underwrite lease-up against the pipeline already under construction in your submarket. Nationally, 677,000 units in buildings of five or more were under construction in September, 3.1% fewer than a year earlier [1].
- Treat the starts drop as a possible window for projects that deliver in 2028. Completions in larger buildings fell 20.4% in a year along with starts [1], which could mean fewer competing units opening later, so check permits for your metro on The Portal’s data page before you commit.
This is market commentary, not investment advice.
Sources
- [1]U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly New Residential Construction, September 2026, Oct 20, 2026.
- [2]U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026, Oct 27, 2026.
- [3]U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026, Sep 24, 2026.
- [4]Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 29, 2026, Oct 29, 2026.
